Nintendo consoles have become somewhat famous for their intermittent generational popularity, starting with the Nintendo 64 console. In other words, the success of their consoles seems to alternate between each successive generation:
The Nintendo 64 was relatively successful (although people often overestimate how successful it actually was, but it was by raw numbers quite successful), the GameCube was less so, the Wii was an absolute monster, the Wii U was an utter disappointment in terms of sales, and the Nintendo Switch was another absolute monster of a console, in terms of units sold and overall success (surpassing even the Wii, and by quite a margin, becoming the third most-sold console in history.)
This kind of alternation in success is not really seen, at least not that prominently, with the consoles of the other two major competitors, ie. Microsoft and Sony.
One of the reasons for this success alternation with Nintendo consoles is probably what could be called "generational fatigue" or sorts (referring to console generations rather than human generations).
Since pretty much the very beginning Nintendo consoles have been seen primarily as "for kids", the console that parents are most likely to buy for their kids, while the Microsoft and Sony consoles are more seen as "for hard-core gamers". While the division is not this strict in reality, it still arguably exists.
Hard-core gamers generally want the latest-and-greatest and are usually eager to get the latest console. However, parents buying a console for their kids do not think like this. Instead, they tend to think more like "we already have a Nintendo at home, why do we need another one?"
Parents don't see the value in the "latest and greatest". A console is just a console. If you have one, doesn't that suffice? And, quite likely, this happened again and again: "We already have a N64 at home, why do we need this GameCube thingie?" "We already have a Wii at home, why do we need this Wii U thing? It's just the same."
This might have caused this sort of intermittent buying pattern by parents: The next console launch comes "too soon" after the last one, so parents don't feel any incentive to buy it because they "already have one at home". However, since enough years have passed by the time of the release after that, the kids have grown up, and a new generation of kids are without a console, so the new parents buy the newest one for them, especially since the 15-or-so years old console doesn't see much use anymore.
The Nintendo Switch is currently the latest-and-greatest console, not just by Nintendo, but overall. It's currently the third-most-sold console in history, only behind the PlayStation 2 and the Nintendo DS, both obsolete (and not even all that far behind them, in terms of units sold).
The Nintendo Switch 2 will be soon launched, as of writing this blog post.
If we look at history, all the signs are there: It's extremely similar to the current Switch, and most parents who buy such consoles for their kids are likely not going to see much value in spending a huge bunch of money for a console that looks and feels so similar to the one they already have at home. "We already have a Switch at home, why do we need a new one?"
This has all the same hallmarks as the Wii U fiasco: It looks and feels way too similar to the previous console: Name's the same, looks the same, feels the same, and the marketing isn't doing enough to make it clear that this is an entirely new console.
However, there are some differences compared to the Wii vs. Wii U situation:
For starters, the problem with the Wii U was that many people thought that it was some kind of add-on peripheral for the Wii (essentially a new controller with a screen on it). They didn't actually realize that it was an entirely new independent console with better specs. Nintendo's poor marketing didn't do enough to make that clear.
The Switch 2 is, however, quite clearly a new console, not just some kind of add-on peripheral for the original Switch. I don't think anybody's confused about that. (However, there's still the problem that it looks and feels so similar that many parent's will not see any value in purchasing it if they already have the Switch. It just looks like a slightly upgraded Switch. Which, to be fair, it kind of is.)
Secondly, the Switch has been much more widely adopted by even the more "hard core" gamers. In other words, the ones that will buy the latest-and-greatest and not suffer from "generational fatigue" so much.
Particularly this second aspect is likely to make the Switch 2 more of a success than with the Wii vs. Wii U situation.
However, I highly doubt that it will reach even close to the absolutely humongous sales numbers of the Switch. That's just not going to happen.
The Nintendo Switch, as of writing this, has sold about 150 million units.
I predict that the Nintendo Switch 2 will sell during its lifetime perhaps 100 million units. Maybe a bit less. Let's say 80-100 million units.
